Economic Recovery


The India has become fastest growing economy again and it is in recovery mode with 7.2 per cent GDP growth rate. The national economy is back on track with sound expansion on manufacturing and construction and it is coming out fast from the bad effects of demonetization and the GST. There is sharp pick up in investment with 12 per cent rise in gross fixed capital formation. India’s fiscal deficit for the period April 2017 to January 2018 stood at 6.77 lakh crores. This is 113.7 per cent higher than the revised full year estimate of Rs.5.94 lakh crores. The International Rating Agency Moody said that Indian economy is starting to recover from the negative impact of demonetization and GST rollout. The Economic Survey has assessed that the Indian economy is likely to grow at 7 to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19. Some budgetary measures would stabilize the rural economy. The combined index of eight core industries had risen 4.2 per cent in December 2017. Now the GST is also stabilizing fast. In January 2018 the GST collection was of 86,918 crores of rupees little less than the December collection 86,703 crores. In Central GST the collection was of 14,233 crores and in State GST it was 19,961 crores rupees under integrated GST it was 43,791 crore. The highest GST slab 28 per cent on vehicles and luxury goods the collection was of 331 crores. Such fluctuation in month-wise basis is quite a normal feature on an average the GST has stabilized. But its concept of one market one rate in the whole country will not be achieved unless petrol and diesel are brought under the Central GST with one rate in the whole country. The Associated Chamber of Commerce and Industry has pointed out to the Government that it has to pay special attention to the export from the country. India on the whole is importing more than its exports. In export and import duty should be made effective immediately according to global market. Many times the trade and industry felt disgusted in inordinate delay in getting final decision on import and export. The Government expenditure is still very high and create problem in fiscal management. In private sector the growth has come down from 6.5 to 5.6 per cent. The Bank scams have shattered the economy and public confidence in it. Five bank scams are already going and there is one more from Kolkata is now added to it. It is also in the public sector Canara Bank. It is scandal of 515 crores involving 9 banks. In it also loans were taken on fake documents. It started in the year 2012-13 but come to light after 5 years in 2018 that too when the Union Finance Ministry has asked all the public sector banks to look and go deeper in to all the big loans and examine all the papers and fix up responsibility. It is likely that in the near future many more bank frauds will be reported to the Government and the Reserve Bank of India.