The Economic Survey of 2018 projects 7-7.5 per cent growth in the financial year 2018-19 as against the 6.75 per cent in 2017-18. The gross value for 2018 will be at 6.1 per cent against the 6.6 per cent of the previous year.
The Survey predicts service growth in 2018 at 8.3 per cent in industry at 4.4 per cent and agriculture at 2.1 per cent. The areas of agriculture, education and employment will remain in the focus of economy.
The Survey predicts the agenda for the next year is stabilizing the GST, completing the TBS action, privatizing the Air India and protecting macro-economic stability, reforms to shrink unviable banks and above all allow greater private sector participation.
It said if international oil prices persist may provoke sudden stall in capital flow.
India cannot do anything if petro crude prices shoot up but domestically it can bring the petrol and diesel under the GST for one price in the whole country and put limit and ceiling of taxation on petrol diesel prices.
Presently the petrol and diesel prices have touched Rs.80 per liter and if the prices shoot upto Rs.100 per liter. The prices of all the commodities will also shoot up in the home markets leading sharp inflation.
On a happy note the Survey says that India can be rated as among the best performing economies in the world on the average growth during the past three years is around 4 per cent higher than global rate and nearly 3 per cent more than that of emerging market and developing economies.
It point out that the GDP growth has averaged 7.3 per cent for the period 2014-15 to 2017-18 which is the highest among major economies of the world. This growth has been achieved because of lower inflation, improved current account balance and notable reduction on the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio makes it all the more creditable.
The Survey did not rule out a pause in the fiscal consolidation plan ahead of the General Elections due next year.
The Survey lamented that high number of delays and pendency of economic cases in the Supreme Court, economic tribunals and tax department are taking severe toll in the economy, in terms of stalled projects, mounting legal costs, contested tax revenues and reduced investments. 1.45 lakh appeals are pending with Supreme Court, High Courts, Commissioner.
The Survey calls for coordinate action between the Government and the Judiciary to settle the number of commercial litigation would help improving economic activities. On the brighter side there is 50 per cent rise in number of indirect tax payers. The average rate of retail inflation in 2017-18 lowest in last six years and rise in the FDI in services sector because of reforms in the country.