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No Modi Wave

3/16/2018

The Bhartiya Janata Party under the hallucination of Modi wave prevailing on the country must have come to realize that there is nothing like that with most humiliating defeat in Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha bye-elections in Uttar Pradesh. After the list Lok Sabha polls on 2014 there were 20 bye election in the country and BJP could win only three. The Gorakhpur is a city of religious importance. It is established on the name of Guru Gorakhnath and the Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is head of 'matha' was member parliament and party held seat for the last 30 years. Yogi vacated it to on becoming Chief Minister and Mr Keshav Prasad Maurya vacated Phulpur on becoming Deputy Chief Minister. In such condition for BJP it is not a question of defeat in two bye-election but loss of prestige. The United Opposition in 2019 may even defeat Prime Minister in his Varanasi constituency. The 3 large-elections in Bihar Araria for Lok Sabha and Jehanabad and Bhabua for State Vidhan Sabha are just repeat performance. The RJD held Araria and Jehanabad and it retained it, so is the BJP who retained Bhabua held by it. Now an every elections word "wave-'lahar' is frequently used while there is nothing like it. The word 'wave' has lost it significance in real sense. Looking into electoral record of past election there were only three occasion when condition like 'wave' prevailed. But such phenomena were one time only. When Mrs Gandhi was Prime Minister almost entire opposition firmed a grand alliance against Congress but in the election with the slogan banish poverty - Garibi hatao She shattered the grand alliance in such a way that it emerged as 'grand flop'. If a party is strong itself political combinations does not matter at all. Another time there was Jai Prakash Narayan Janata wave when Congress was smashed but just after three year in 1980 there was another Indira wave and Janata Government were ousted and it Janata Party organisation shattered on a such way that it disintegrated. Generally the BJP is projecting the BJP rule of Prime Minister Mr. Atal Bihari Vajpayee as best government of India but Congress ousted it just in one term of five years and thereafter Congress led UPA Government continued in office successively for 2 terms for 10 years. The Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath said on Gorakhpur and Phulpur results that party was defeated as because of over confidence and 'Modi wave' is one such over confidence. The Congress should also ponder seriously on these verdicts. Candidate in these in two bye-election lost their deposits. In the last Lok Sabha elections it could win only 2 out total 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh and that of Sonia Gandhi seat of Rai Barelli and Amethi of Rahul Gandhi. In UP assembly general election it was in joint front with Samajvadi Party but it number was reduced from 11 to 7 only. At that time it could click like this time when Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party came together in Gorakhpur and Phulpur. It helped because both the parties are broad based strong parties in the state. Mere coming together is not enough unless Congress has its on organisational strong base. The BJP also should not take the 'Modi wave' for granted and guarantee of winning.

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